Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
