How Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves White House empty-handed
The frequently changing summit is just the latest twist in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza.
During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president gained from a long record of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.
The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.